It's Thanksgiving, and IBM, via its Benchmark data service is once again tracking how U.S. consumers are taking to the web to kick off their holiday season shopping, with early indications that this year is looking a bit softer than 2012. Overall, Thanksgiving online sales are up 9% over last year. On the same day in 2012, they were up by over 14%. And the average value of an online order is down slightly, too. IBM tells me it is $132.13 so far for today; in 2012, it was $132.57.
Within that, newer platforms like mobile are getting ever more popular: mobile accounted for over 35% of all online traffic, up almost 30% compared to 2012. Mobile sales were over 22% of all online sales. It's no surprise that mobile continues to grow: many people are together with friends and family, and often converging in living rooms and maybe in front of TVs or at parades or other events. That means less time at computers and turning to smaller and more portable screens to catch the latest deals.
IBM's data is bearing out a trend we've seen elsewhere, that tablets, rather than smartphones, are driving more actual conversions to purchases. Smartphones today have so far driven 22% of all online traffic, IBM says, versus just 12.5% for tablets. But tablets have driven 13% of all sales online, 1.5 times the rate for handsets at 9%. The bigger screens of tablets are also driving more valuable orders - $125 versus $114.21 when items are purchased on smartphones.
iOS may be losing to Android in overall marketshare globally, but when it comes to the U.S. market, it's still the most engaged platform, particularly for e-commerce. It has so far seen more than three times the amount of sales that Android has - or 17% versus 5% of all online sales. iOS users spent $120.03 per order, IBM says, with Android at $114.19 (very close to the smartphone average basket value, in fact). iOS devices have accounted for 24% of all online shopping traffic so far; Android 10.5%.
Last year IBM stirred up a bit of controversy when it noted that social networks were driving only 0.2% of online sales. This year, the numbers are a bit better: social networks so far are driving about 1% of sales, IBM tells me - “which is not to say social is not important, it has more of an indirect influence on sales - i.e. consumer perceptions of products, brands, customer experience,
which influences purchasing,” a spokesperson tells me.
So far, Facebook is winning out over Pinterest in terms of driving more valuable purchases, at $108.41 per order compared to $102.61 per order for Pinterest. Facebook referrals converted sales at a 43% higher rate than Pinterest referrals, “perhaps indicating stronger confidence in network recommendations,” IBM notes.
IBM says that it will update again with fresh numbers in a few hours. Last year, sales crept up the whole day, and by midnight, sales were up 17.4% over 2011, with an especially strong push for mobile commerce. Some 25.3% of consumers used mobile devices to visit retailers' sites in 2012, up 66% over 2011. And 18.3% of consumers used a mobile device to buy something, up 65% over 2011.
The bigger picture for this year, according to Forrester's estimates, are U.S. online holiday sales will reach $78.7 billion this year, up 15% over 2012, when sales topped $68.4 billion. Forrester predicts that 167 million shoppers will do their holiday shopping online, spending an average of $472 for the season. Going against the slightly softer numbers IBM is showing, Forrester's Sucharita Mulpuru is more optimistic: “Strong economic growth and low unemployment rates project a healthy playing field for online holiday sales and outweigh any lingering dampening effect of the government shutdown,” she writes.
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